Stick a fork in it, ’cause it’s almost done. There’s a high likelihood that the 2012 associate bonus season is complete for all practical purposes, and if so, it will look a lot like past bonus seasons: Cravath leads, and everyone else follows.
High likelihood, but not yet a certainty. There’s one major wild card that’s still out: Sullivan & Cromwell, which sometimes takes the lead on associate compensation. Remember, of course, that the 2011 spring bonuses were brought to you by S&C. One could certainly see a scenario in which Sullivan & Cromwell trumps Cravath, in order to get Cravath back for the time that CSM showed up S&C on spring bonuses.
Unless and until Sullivan & Cromwell beats Cravath, though, we’re playing the usual game of follow Cravath. Let’s check out the latest firm to fall in line….
Remember the Skaddenite who confidently predicted to us that Skadden would “crush” the Cravath bonuses? That person was wrong, unless “crush” is now a synonym for “adopt.”
As close followers of the bonus wars well know, Skadden doesn’t issue a firm-wide memo listing all the amounts given to all the classes. Instead, it issues memos to each class stating the bonus amount for that class. We don’t have all the data points yet, but so far we have data points for associates from the classes of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010. And so far, all of them match Cravath. So we’re willing to bet that Skadden has matched Cravath across the board (but let us know ASAP if we’re wrong, and we’ll note that; you can text us, at 646-820-8477, or email us, at tips@abovethelaw.com).
How are Skadden associates receiving the news? Here are some reactions:
“[N]ot overly excited, but not as annoyed as I would have been had it been a rehash of 2010 AGAIN.”
“I’m obviously glad that Cravath raised the bar from last year, but not high enough that I’m skipping through the halls or anything.”
“Thanks for not shafting us on the tax issue!”
That last comment would appear to refer to the Weil Gotshal situation.
So yes, it’s beginning to look a lot like Cravath-mas. Now that Simpson and Skadden have matched, it’s quite likely that everyone else will fall in line. There are a number of fine firms that have not yet announced — Cleary Gottlieb, Davis Polk, Debevoise — but these firms, while extremely prestigious and profitable, historically tend to follow rather than lead.
The only big name that’s outstanding that might move the market is Sullivan & Cromwell. Will “S&C” turn out to be “Santa & Claus,” or will Joe Shenker play the role of Grinch? Stay tuned.
(If you’re interested, you can check out the form memo from executive partner Eric Friedman on the next page.)
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